2011 NFL Week 5 Predictions: Packers vs Falcons Betting Odds

Oct 052011

The 4-0 Green Bay packers will travel to the Georgia Dome to face the 2-2 Atlanta Falcons this Sunday October 9th, 2011 for their week 5 matchup.

This game is available for betting at BetOnline Sportsbook and the Packers are -6 point favorites with a total of 53.5 for this one.

This is a rematch from the NFC divisional playoffs, when the Falcons could not stop Aaron Rodgers and Matt Ryan threw a costly interception, and things have not changed much since then. Matt Ryan is averaging 283.8 yards per game and has thrown 6 touchdowns with 4 interceptions, while Rodgers is throwing for 331.2 yards per game and has thrown 12 touchdowns vs. 2 interceptions.

The Falcons defense ranks 24th against the pass, surrendering 275.5 yards per game and conceding 7 touchdowns so far. Green Bay also has problems in this area, ranking 31st and surrendering 335.8 yards per game and nine touchdowns, mostly from teams trying to keep up with them, as Atlanta will likely do on Sunday Night Football.

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Both of these teams rank in the top ten defending against the run, and have surrendered a combined five rushing touchdowns this year. The last time these two teams met both starting running backs rushed for a combined 105 yards, stating how little both teams rely on the run on games between each other.

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BETTING TRENDS:

Green Bay is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Green Bay’s last 5 games
The total has gone UNDER in 10 of Green Bay’s last 13 games on the road
Green Bay is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games on the road
Green Bay is 2-5 ATS in its last 7 games when playing Atlanta
The total has gone OVER in 6 of Green Bay’s last 8 games when playing Atlanta
Green Bay is 2-5 SU in its last 7 games when playing on the road against Atlanta
Atlanta is 1-4 ATS in its last 5 games
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Atlanta’s last 5 games
Atlanta is 15-5 SU in its last 20 games
Atlanta is 9-2 SU in its last 11 games at home
The total has gone OVER in 6 of Atlanta’s last 8 games when playing Green Bay
Atlanta is 5-2 SU in its last 7 games when playing at home against Green Bay

This game will be a total shootout just as it was in last year’s Divisional Playoff, with the main difference now being Green Bay’s pass defense, which it’s not what it was last year thus making this an obviously high scoring game. Take the over 53.5.

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